December’s decisive decisions

The nation enters into the last month of the year with a number of crucial
political decisions set to be taken that could well underline the future direction
of the country.
Central to the political decisions to be taken in the month is the decision on the
line up of candidates of the two major political parties who are expected to
battle for supremacy in the coming elections that will define the future
direction of the country in the immediate and perhaps long term. The election
is due next February but the candidates would have to emerge this month
under the provisions of the electoral act.
Besides that, the ensuing face off between President Goodluck Jonathan and
his adversaries in the National Assembly could come to a head in December
when the legislators weigh the option of serving the president an impeachment
notice or not.
Political intrigues
The schedule of primaries to select candidates for the election due next
February was itself laced in deep political intrigues. After initially fixing its
primary schedules to commence in mid November with the key gubernatorial
primaries initially fixed for November 15, All Progressives Congress, APC
strategists moved it to fall behind that of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP
which had fixed its own gubernatorial primaries for November 29.
After a closed door meeting of the national caucus sometime in early
November, APC rescheduled its primaries for December 4th. The decision was
to allow the party lure those who fail to make it in the PDP to move over to the
APC to try their luck and by that, dismember the PDP. Indeed, the APC had
earlier amended its constitution to remove restriction on new members
contesting in the party’s primaries at any level.
The PDP was quick to react to the plot of the APC as it also immediately
adjusted its own primary schedule and put its governorship and National
Assembly primaries after the newly publicised dates set by the opposition
party.
The rest of this month is however, laced with much activities for the political
gladiators.
December 2: APC holds primaries for House of Assembly aspirants. It is
expected that a number of aspirants who lost out in the PDP last Saturday
would seize the opportunity of trying their luck in the APC. However, the
bandwagon effect of such defections would not have significant effect on a
national scale.
December 3: House of Representatives resumes plenary session with the
sceptre of an impeachment notice against the president arising from the police
invasion of the National Assembly still an issue.
December 4: APC holds governorship primaries across the country. By the
decision of the PDP to put its own primaries after that of the APC, the ruling
party has almost successfully tied the hands of those who could lose out in
the party. Some like Umana Umana in Akwa Ibom on the release of the
revised schedule immediately jumped ship knowing the PDP had closed the
door against rebellion. The only opportunity open to dissidents who lose out in
the PDP is to work against the party in the main election but such dissidents
would think twice.
December 6: PDP House of Representatives primaries.
December 7: APC House of Representatives primaries. Holding the APC House
of Representatives primaries a day after that of the PDP was primed to enable
the many dissidents in the House to switch camp if they fail to get the PDP
tickets.
Internal disharmony
However, it is a double edged sword for the APC as party stalwarts who had
been eyeing the party’s ticket could cause internal disharmony if it is
perceived that the party hierarchy is unjustly dishing out tickets to defectors
from the PDP.
December 7: PDP Senate primaries.
December 8: APC Senate primaries. The same permutation on PDP dissidents
in the House jumping ship could also apply in this case.
December 8: PDP holds its governorship primaries.
December 10: APC presidential primaries/national convention. How the four
contenders and party leaders take the decision on who emerges as
presidential nominee of the opposition party would be a major factor in the
election. If they come out united, the ruling PDP could be in for a strong fight
in the days ahead.
December 11: PDP nomination convention ends with the expected adoption of
President Jonathan as party candidate.
The two presidential candidates that emerge from the national conventions of
the two major political parties would also be expected to nominate their
running mates if not on the convention ground, then shortly after.
Other major decisions of December
The president is yet to present the 2015 budget proposals to the National
Assembly. Eyes would be watching out to see whether the president would
present the proposals himself or delegate someone else as he did last year
following apprehensions of a plot by some members of the National Assembly
to hound him.